The Mainland China market's ability to absorb semiconductor equipment is just too strong.
In the first quarter of 2024 (January to March), global semiconductor equipment sales once again fell into a state of contraction. Among them, sales in Taiwan and North America saw a significant decrease, while Mainland China doubled.
The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) and the Japan Semiconductor Equipment Association (SEAJ) released statistical data on the 6th, pointing out that due to the significant contraction of sales in Taiwan and North America, the global semiconductor equipment (new products) sales in the first quarter of 2024 fell by 2% compared to the same period last year, reaching $26.42 billion, marking the third contraction in four quarters.
Looking at the regional sales situation, Mainland China's market sales reached $12.52 billion in the first quarter, a surge of 113% compared to the same period last year, and has been the largest global semiconductor equipment market for four consecutive quarters; the Korean market's sales fell by 7% to $5.2 billion, surpassing the Taiwan region for three consecutive quarters to become the second-largest semiconductor equipment market globally; Taiwan's regional market sales plummeted by 66% to $2.34 billion, ranking third for three consecutive quarters, with the largest decrease among major markets.
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Additionally, the European market's sales increased by 23% to $1.89 billion, the U.S. market's sales decreased by 33% to $1.89 billion, the Japanese market's sales fell by 4% to $1.82 billion, and sales in other regions decreased by 28% to $760 million.
SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha pointed out that although global semiconductor equipment sales have fallen into a slight contraction, the overall industry remains robust and has the ability to recover. Strategic investments and demand from advanced technologies are expected to promote a recovery and growth trend in the semiconductor equipment market.
The above data is compiled by SEAJ in conjunction with SEMI, integrating data provided monthly by their respective member companies (semiconductor equipment manufacturers).The semiconductor equipment market continues to expand, with a continuous increase in the domestication rate.
The semiconductor equipment in China is mainly divided into photolithography equipment, etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, testing equipment, and packaging equipment, among which, photolithography equipment accounts for the largest proportion, about 24%, followed by etching equipment and thin film deposition equipment, both accounting for 20%, and testing equipment and packaging equipment account for 9% and 6% respectively. According to statistics, driven by the rapid development of the downstream industry, the semiconductor equipment market size in mainland China in 2022 decreased by 4.6% compared to the same period last year, reaching 28.27 billion US dollars; the semiconductor equipment market size in Taiwan increased by 8% compared to the same period last year, reaching 26.82 billion US dollars. In the first three quarters of 2023, the semiconductor equipment market size in mainland China was 24.47 billion US dollars; the semiconductor equipment market size in Taiwan was 15.32 billion US dollars.
With the rapid development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and 5G, there is a large demand for semiconductor equipment in mainland China, which accounts for about 25% of the global semiconductor equipment market and is still in a state of catching up. According to statistics, the semiconductor equipment market size in mainland China in 2022 accounted for 26.27% of the global market, second only to Taiwan, and the mainland has become the largest semiconductor equipment market in the world for three consecutive years. In the first three quarters of 2023, the semiconductor equipment market size in mainland China accounted for 31.29% of the global market, with a significant increase in proportion.
The domestication of semiconductor manufacturing will inevitably drive the domestication of equipment. According to statistics, the total import of semiconductor equipment in mainland China in 2022 was 34.72 billion US dollars, which means that the proportion of independent research and development of semiconductor equipment in our country is relatively low. Therefore, accelerating the domestication of semiconductor equipment has become an important milestone in the development of our country's science and technology. According to statistics, the domestication rate of semiconductor equipment in our country in 2022 increased by 3.28 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reaching 14.08%. Although driven by the improvement of national security awareness and the domestic market demand, the demand for semiconductor equipment in our country is increasing, but the overall domestication rate is still low, and there is still a large room for improvement. In August 2023, two important projects in the semiconductor field in Hunan - "Key Technology Research and Tackle of Domestic Core Equipment for the Third Generation of Semiconductors" and "8-inch Integrated Circuit Complete Equipment" were successfully accepted, marking a new important breakthrough in the independent research and development of our country's semiconductor industry. It not only highlights the independent research and development strength of our country in the semiconductor field but also injects new momentum into the continuous development of our country's semiconductor industry.
WSTS revises the global semiconductor sales estimate for this year.
According to the forecast report released by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS) on the 4th, due to the continuous strong investment in global AI, it has driven the rapid expansion of demand for memory and some logic chips. Therefore, the global semiconductor sales estimate for 2024 was revised from the previous estimate of 588.364 billion US dollars to 611.231 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 574.084 billion US dollars in 2022 and setting a new historical record.
WSTS revised the global sales of chips (IC) for 2024 from the previous estimate of 487.454 billion US dollars to 517.457 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year. In terms of IC details, WSTS revised the global sales of memory for 2024 from the previous estimate of 129.768 billion US dollars to 163.153 billion US dollars, a surge of 76.8%; the logic, including products such as CPU, was revised from the previous estimate of 191.693 billion US dollars to 197.656 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.
WSTS also estimates that the global semiconductor sales in 2025 will increase by 12.5% year-on-year to 687.38 billion US dollars, continuing to set a new historical record. Among them, the IC sales estimate will increase by 13.7% year-on-year to 588.425 billion US dollars, of which the memory sales estimate will increase by 25.2% year-on-year to 204.281 billion US dollars, and the logic IC will increase by 10.4% year-on-year to 218.189 billion US dollars.
